Perturbation INVEST 90L en 2025

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium..50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression
could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are
expected to
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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