Perturbation INVEST 98L en 2025

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data indicated the system
lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph
to the north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conductive for slow development over the next couple of
days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, crossing
the Windward Islands and entering the Caribbean Sea by early next
week. By the middle of next week, the system is expected to slow
down over the central Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions
could become more favorable for further development. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
northeast of Bermuda. There is a slight chance that the system
could develop some subtropical characteristics over the next day or
so before it turns northeastward into cooler ocean waters on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

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