000
ABNT20 KNHC 181736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low
pressure continues to produce showers and thunderstorms extending a
couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur
while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20
mph, continuing north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today,
then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend.
Further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better
organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association
with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better
defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some additional development over the next day
or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form
before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday.
Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or
warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America
and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi


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