Reminder: the information and illustrations on this site are NOT INTENDED to protect property and people from cyclonic risks. For this, you must follow the information and recommendations of your prefecture for France and the competent authorities for other territories.
This article is not up to date. A more recent is here
The disturbance on the Atlantic was, as expected, classified as a tropical depression (13) tonight and continues its route towards the north of the West Indies. During the operation it made a jump of nearly 3 ° towards the north with a convection boost to its north which revived a more compact circulation.
The environment is still favorable for strengthening, and even a little more than yesterday with a shear which shifts north as the system moves. Under these conditions a storm reinforcement could take place within 24 hours, and perhaps even much more quickly if one relies on the Dvorak analysis.
48 hours from a passage at the longitude of the arc, the consensus of the models both in trajectory and intensity becomes clearer. 2 trends remain for the trajectory, with one right on the northern islands and another a little to the north (privileged for the moment not the nhc). For the intensity, the consensus is for a storm at 48 hours with some discrepancies in some models.
To follow the direct quantified evolution of depression 13, it is HERE.
Image credits; Tropical tidbits, NHC / Noaa, UW-CIMSS
