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The northern islands are slowly emerging from the disturbed area behind the storm and the northern Caribbean arc is still experiencing some convective foci in the tail. But most of the rain and thunderstorms have passed and conditions should improve very quickly.
Overall we are doing very well on the arc. We benefited from its passage when it was very weak and less well organized, which made it possible to avoid the usual conditions of a storm, in particular with the strong wind established in the immediate north, and therefore on the northern islands. On the readings the wind was rather moderate around 20 kts and gusts locally at 40 kts. Let's not complain, it didn't play out much considering the location during his passage over the arc.
This little stroke of luck should not make us think that it will be like that next time. Cyclonic systems are sometimes very fantastic and extremely difficult to predict, even at 24 hours. The shear a little stronger than expected on the north of the arc probably avoided a reinforcement just before or during the passage which could have changed the situation in terms of the wind on Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthelemy. Sometimes it doesn't matter much.
Its displacement was almost due west from its location near Guadeloupe, contrary to all the forecasts which made it pass north of Puerto Rico. It has once again defied the predictions of models and forecasters. It has reorganized again quite a bit and shows a structure more in line with its status, in particular thanks to a very imposing deep convection and close to its center. On the other hand, we can see a series of other vortices around, a sign that its organization, even if it is better, is not yet optimal.
The forecasts maintain an upcoming trip to the WNW, namely the longitudinal crossing of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. If it follows this path it should weaken considerably due to its interaction with the land and the lack of water. But this hypothesis, even if it wins a large consensus, retains a small share of uncertainty, and the last few hours abound in this direction (I recall that 30 hours ago the consensus remained strong enough for a passage north of the bow).
It is therefore for the moment still very difficult to envisage the next 48 hours. If the forecast is confirmed, it will pass right through Hispaniola, losing its intensity but affecting a lot of people with potentially very heavy rains, whereas if it passes a little further south or north it could strengthen a little. And that should be of decisive importance for its intensity when it arrives in the Gulf of Mexico and then its impact on the United States.
I have been asked several times the question of its possible interaction with Storm Marco (ex depression 14) if they both occur at the same time in the Gulf of Mexico. I have seen apocalyptic and totally delirious animations on the birth of a category 5 if it were to happen. The reality is very different and this interaction is known as the Fujiwara effect.
In the vast majority of cases this interaction weakens one or both systems. Although it has happened in history (very rarely) that a slightly more powerful system emerges. But we are talking about a 5-day forecast for the trajectory of 2 cyclones. When we know the difficulty of predicting the trajectory of a single to 3 days, it is for the moment more science fiction than meteorology!
This evening we will address the question of the wave leaving Africa and forecasts concerning it.
Image credits; Tropical tidbits, NHC / Noaa, UW-CIMSS
