General data on the 2020 hurricane season
With 30 named storms, the hurricane season 2020 broke many records despite an initial forecast only slightly above average.
The highest data is the number of storm days with 118, more than double the average between 1981-2010. This figure is an absolute record and is very impressive since it represents almost 65% of the duration of the season. With 13 hurricanes including 6 major ones, we are close to the rather monstrous figures of the sad 2005 season (15 hurricanes including 7 major ones). On the other hand, the cumulative ACE index remained well below certain seasons, in particular 2017.
| Season | Forecast | Average | % on forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Of storms | 30 | 24 | 12 | 120.83% |
| Nb of stormy days | 118.75 | 100 | 59.5 | 108.75% |
| Number of hurricanes | 13 | 12 | 6.5 | 108.33% |
| Number of hurricane days | 34.75 | 45 | 24 | 173.33% |
| Number of major hurricanes | 6 | 5 | 2.7 | 120% |
| Number of days of major hurricanes | 8.75 | 11 | 6 | 238.64% |
| Total cumulative ACE index | 180.54 | 200 | 106 | 89.77% |
The 2020 hurricane season in the Caribbean arc
Despite this activity far above normal, the Caribbean arc and the French islands (Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthelemy) were largely spared by cyclonic activity. And it is also a habit since this has already been the case during the 2 seasons which had broken records previously (1967 and 2005).
Despite everything it is of course impossible to correlate these 2 data and it is probably simple coincidences.
The areas most affected were the southern United States (Gulf of Mexico) and Central America, particularly Nicaragua, which was hit by 2 category 5 hurricanes in 3 weeks in the same area.
Difference with the 2020 hurricane forecasts
The University of Colorado, specialist in hurricane forecasting, publishes forecasts 3 times per season. The first takes place at the beginning of April, the second at the beginning of June and the third at the beginning of August. For a good ten years, the initial forecast for the month of April has often been relevant and gives a fairly realistic overview of the coming season. In 2020, the initial forecast for April was incredibly poor, especially on the number of named storms (16 instead of 30!) and the number of storm days (80 instead of 118). Despite a readjustment on the following 2 forecasts, the differences remained very high.
It is likely that this exceptional shift will be very cyclical and that from the 2021 season we will find a rather relevant forecast and this unfortunate situation should not cause us to lose our confidence in these tools and this very high quality work.
List of cyclone systems for the 2020 season
| Name | Start | End | Max wind | Minimum pressure | Cat. Max | Nb of days storm | Number of days hurricane | Number of days Major hurricanes | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARTHUR | 2020/05/16 | 2020/05/19 | 50 kt | 989 hPa | Storm | 2.75 | 0 | 0 | 3.46 |
| BERTHA | 2020/05/27 | 2020/05/28 | 45 kt | 1007 hPa | Storm | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0.36 |
| CRISTOBAL | 2020/06/01 | 2020/06/10 | 50 kt | 985 hPa | Storm | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 |
| DOLLY | 2020/06/23 | 2020/06/24 | 40 kt | 1002 hPa | Storm | 0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 |
| EDWARD | 2020/07/04 | 2020/07/06 | 40 kt | 1005 hPa | Storm | 0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 |
| FAY | 2020/07/09 | 2020/07/11 | 50 kt | 998 hPa | Storm | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.35 |
| GONZALO | 2020/07/21 | 2020/07/25 | 55 kt | 997 hPa | Storm | 4.75 | 0 | 0 | 4.39 |
| HANNA | 2020/07/23 | 2020/07/27 | 75 kt | 973 hPa | Cat. 1 | 2.75 | 2.25 | 0 | 7.3 |
| ISAIAS | 2020/07/30 | 2020/08/05 | 75 kt | 987 hPa | Cat. 1 | 7 | 6.75 | 0 | 23.67 |
| JOSEPHINE | 2020/08/11 | 2020/08/16 | 40 kt | 1005 hPa | Storm | 2.75 | 0 | 0 | 1.77 |
| KYLE | 2020/08/14 | 2020/08/16 | 45 kt | 1000 hPa | Storm | 1.25 | 0 | 0 | 1.13 |
| LAURA | 2020/08/20 | 2020/08/29 | 130 kt | 938 hPa | Cat. 4 | 6.25 | 3.75 | 3 | 32.68 |
| ABOUT US | 2020/08/20 | 2020/08/25 | 65 kt | 991 hPa | Cat. 1 | 4.75 | 0.75 | 0 | 6.7 |
| NANA | 2020/09/01 | 2020/09/04 | 65 kt | 994 hPa | Cat. 1 | 3.5 | 0.75 | 0 | 4.8 |
| OMAR | 2020/08/31 | 2020/09/05 | 35 kt | 1003 hPa | Storm | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.37 |
| PAULETTE | 2020/09/07 | 2020/09/23 | 90 kt | 965 hPa | Cat. 2 | 11 | 10.5 | 0 | 49.18 |
| RENÉ | 2020/09/07 | 2020/09/14 | 45 kt | 1000 hPa | Storm | 3.75 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 |
| SALLY | 2020/09/11 | 2020/09/18 | 90 kt | 967 hPa | Cat. 2 | 3.75 | 6 | 0 | 19.21 |
| TEDDY | 2020/09/12 | 2020/09/24 | 120 kt | 945 hPa | Cat. 4 | 2.25 | 13.5 | 8.25 | 83.34 |
| VICKY | 2020/09/14 | 2020/09/17 | 45 kt | 1000 hPa | Storm | 2.75 | 0 | 0 | 2.07 |
| WILFRED | 2020/09/18 | 2020/09/21 | 35 kt | 1007 hPa | Storm | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.23 |
| ALPHA | 2020/09/18 | 2020/09/19 | 45 kt | 990 hPa | Storm | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 4.51 |
| BETA | 2020/09/17 | 2020/09/25 | 50 kt | 994 hPa | Storm | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5.59 |
| GAMMA | 2020/10/02 | 2020/10/06 | 60 kt | 980 hPa | Storm | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.17 |
| DELTA | 2020/10/05 | 2020/10/12 | 120 kt | 953 hPa | Cat. 4 | 1.25 | 6.75 | 6 | 45.94 |
| EPSILON | 2020/10/19 | 2020/10/26 | 100 kt | 952 hPa | Cat. 3 | 2.75 | 12.75 | 1.5 | 36.83 |
| ZETA | 2020/10/24 | 2020/10/29 | 90 kt | 973 hPa | Cat. 2 | 3.5 | 6.75 | 0 | 19.59 |
| ETA | 2020/10/31 | 2020/11/13 | 130 kt | 923 hPa | Cat. 4 | 12 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 44.91 |
| THETA | 2020/11/10 | 2020/11/15 | 60 kt | 989 hPa | Storm | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 9.81 |
| IOTA | 2020/11/13 | 2020/11/18 | 140 kt | 917 hPa | Major Hurricane | 2.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 35.58 |
To read on the same subject
August update of the hurricane forecast for the 2020 season
4.93/5 (167) Prof. Philip J. Klotzbach of the Department of Atmospheric Research at the University of Colorado and his team have published their 2nd update
