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Laura largely impacted the island of Puerto Rico and the surrounding Islands during the afternoon. Terrible rainfalls and gusts over 50 kts hit the area.
There is still a lot of uncertainty about its organization and therefore inevitably about its real position. The deep convection is important but underwent a few logical shocks at the end of the afternoon during the Dmin. Now it restarts in a somewhat anarchic way but still very strong. The cross-checking of wind readings, satellite data and radar images shows that the surface circulation (the minimum pressure) remains a little off-center in relation to the convection and the circulation at medium altitude. This partly explains the fact, with the interaction with the land, that its intensity remains stable. A Hurricane Hunter is under investigation and should give more concrete information on its position and actual intensity in the next 2 hours.
At the moment, the Dominican Republic is starting to experience heavy rainfall and thunderstorms from the storm's deep convection in the far east. The country's often light infrastructure (and even more so in Haiti a little later) means that the risk is high for the wind but even more so for the rain. The good news for the moment is that the convection is in the south therefore more on the sea than on the land but the forecasts maintain a passage in the middle of the island (with all the necessary caution with regard to these forecasts not very hours in the past 3 days).
However, the issue of wind is not negligible. The Hunter just made estimates at over 50 kts in the channel in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, which given the relief on the latter could give much stronger gusts.
Whatever the zone of passage of the center, the impacts will be inevitable. On the center and the north of the island for the wind and the center and the south for the rainfalls if the convection position stays in the south like that, but the whole island is concerned.
Regarding Haiti, we can hope for a small weakening because of the interaction with the land. But we have seen in the past that this is sometimes not enough, so you have to be prepared for torrential rains and violent gusts of wind.
Image credits; Tropical tidbits, NHC / Noaa, UW-CIMSS
