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After straining the nerves of forecasters and the processors of digital models, Gonzalo gradually seems to give up.
Successive investigations by the Hurricane Hunters show a very poorly organized system with surface winds that do not exceed the tropical storm classification threshold (35 kts). The minimum pressure found is 1010 hPa which is very high for a storm.
No more model envisages a reinforcement and there is even a consensus for a rapid dissipation in the Caribbean Sea. Even the nhc yet extremely careful and conservative on this system indicates the possibility of weakening in depression in the coming hours.
This marked weakening had the effect of maintaining the center around 10N, not being powerful enough to push back the high pressures to the north a little. The direct consequence is a probable passage on the extreme south of the arc, near Venezuela.
Nevertheless, the convection bursts remaining frequent, it remains possible to have to do with difficult conditions on the south of the arc, from Trinidad to the Grenadines with robust squalls and gusts to 50 kts see more. It's always a storm that passes nearby, which is not trivial.
This is probably the last point I make on Gonzalo. Tonight I will discuss the wave out of Africa which could interest the northern half of the arc this time next week.
Image credits; Tropical tidbits, NHC / Noaa, UW-CIMSS
