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Storm Gonzalo is still unstable and difficult to anticipate. Everyone has been breaking their teeth there for several days. While last night all the signals were green and he was showing serious signs of weakness, he resumed activity last night and has regained good organization. Against all expectations, deep convection resumed and refocused with a very low temperature above the clouds. In short, it's off again for a ride with this totally eccentric cyclone !!
Situation
Storm Gonzalo still remains extremely compact but has regained proper organization. Its position at 6am UTC was 10N by 51.2W with a still westward displacement (270 °) at 22 km / h. The pressure is at 1000 hPa and the intensity is 50 kts with much stronger gusts.
Intensity
Gonzalo continues to take everyone back. When we believe that it is in continuous strengthening it becomes totally disorganized and when we believe that it is really in difficulty it reconstitutes its deep convection in a few hours. It's a real nightmare for forecasters and digital models.
However the trend of the models is clearly to weaken compared to these last days and they are now few to anticipate a classification in hurricane. The nhc continues on this path with a rapid ranking and up to the West Indies. It must be said that they have suffered enough forecast setbacks with this system to remain very cautious about its future….
Path
Gonzalo is still on a due west course. This one should pass a little more WNW from today. After anticipating a more northerly trajectory yesterday, the models returned to a more southerly option. Again, there is no point in over-considering these marginal changes.
It is now becoming fairly obvious that the passage should be between Grenada and Saint Vincent. It leaves Martinique on the sidelines of this system, but it was hard enough for us to think that a small risk remains.
Environmental
No big change in its environment. Always very hot water, little shear but still dry air and sand. The situation is fairly stable from this point of view. On the other hand from tomorrow it should cross a shear stronger. If this is the case, it is legitimate to think that with the dry air it should sound the end of the game and that it could dissipate quite quickly in the Caribbean.
Conclusion
Even though he regained some strength last night, it seems that Gonzalo is facing increasingly harsh conditions and that his future is not bright beyond the Caribbean arc. Until then there remains a risk that he will have an intensity rebound. It is therefore necessary to remain cautious on the south of the arc, especially for those who are in boats.
(Concerning the wave leaving Africa that theECMWF extension and l'ICON announce in significant reinforcement on the West Indies at 7 days, I will speak about it tomorrow or this WE).
To follow the evolution in real time of this weather system, it's here: Tropical Storm Gonzalo
Image credits; Tropical tidbits, NHC / Noaa, UW-CIMSS
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