Current cyclones and Watching


The Invest 97L, the first real candidate for the West Indies

Le 29 juin 2021 à 20:57

By Olivier Tisserant
4.93/5 (122)

Just the end of June, and it's already pretty busy in the tropical Atlantic.

 THEinvest 95L (1) has been shaking the West Indian bow a little for 3 days but it shouldn't cause us any big problems. A small active wave with a lot of wind and rain will cross the West Indies from tomorrow afternoon.
 
The one just behind, theInvest 97L (2) took everyone by surprise today. Very quickly passed to a fairly high risk (40% at 48 hours and 60% at 5 days), it represents a real threat for a strengthening in tropical storm on the West Indies.
Invest 97L on June 29 on the Atlantic

Le nhc has increased its risk throughout the day and favors a strengthening close to the West Indies in depression or tropical storm. The organization of 97L improves a little more with each bulletin.

Water temperature

The very south position of 97L puts it in moderately warm water (27 ° at and on a path where it should warm up a bit to reach 28 °. It is still a little weak for a violent system but sufficient for a storm. tropical.

 

 

Shear

Le shear is declining over the West Indies and this decline should continue over the next few days with a rise to the north of the western sector altitude flow which was protecting us well.

97L should therefore be able to make its way with a shear weak which should not interfere with its strengthening.

Sand and dry air

The dust and dry air, very present on the Atlantic in recent days, have been largely damaged by the trajectory of theinvest 95L which humidified the atmosphere well. Suddenly, theInvest 97L, which is just behind, should benefit from a much more humid and cleaner environment. It is unfortunately a known economic situation, with a first system which opens the way to a second.

The models

For the moment the GFS is on a fairly harsh forecast for Friday with a good stormy passage near Saint-Vincent, which would place Martinique and Guadeloupe in a wind quadrant with gusts over 50 kts.

The Euro model (ECMWF extension) and Météo France models are more measured with a passage further south in a small depression at the max.

It is still difficult to determine which of the 2 options will prove to be the right one, but when in doubt it is better to imagine the worst case scenario and therefore a good storm.

 

Conclusion

THEinvest 97L is in a rather favorable environment for a strengthening by the West Indies. This is partly due to the passage ofInvest 95L on the same trajectory which created much more favorable conditions.

The passage is planned for Friday rather on the southern half of the arc, between Martinique and Grenada. Boats in the south of the arc must take precautions and prepare for the passage of a system that could quickly be named “Elsa“. For Martinique and Guadeloupe which could be to the immediate north it is possible that the wind is quite strong with gusts over 50 kts according to the final trajectory.

In any case, we have to prepare a little to be shaken on Friday by a very early system which should cross the West Indies in a depression or a storm.

It should also be noted that all the French territories of the West Indies are on YELLOW Watching for the passage of 95L.

 

 

Image credit: Tropical tidbits et UW-CIMSS

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