As we could see on the last 2 live (the replay are on the Youtube channel) the Atlantic Ocean is agitated a little at the beginning of August and this is quite normal since the water temperature increases during this period.
There are currently 2 waves classified in Invest (93L and 94L) which directly threaten the West Indies. Today we are going to worry about the closest one, Invest 94L, which should touch the arc on the evening of August 9, 2021. This disturbance remains quite disorganized for the moment but the convection strengthens as it arrives in warmer water (28 to 29 ° on the proximity of the West Indies) and begins to focus.
Le nhc has increased its risk almost continuously for 48 hours and this morning it stands at 8 a.m. local to 70% to 48 hours and 70% to 5 days. Given its proximity to the West Indies (less than 300 km from Barbados) the risk of a significant reinforcement before or during its passage remains quite low but a classification in depression is very possible.
The NHC forecast
The American body increased its risk of strengthening this morning to 70%. He is considering a classification in depression in the next few hours. It also indicates a risk of heavy rainfall over the West Indian Arc, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A reconnaissance plane is scheduled for tomorrow in the middle of the day in the area to have better visibility of the situation in this weather system.
Météo France forecast
Based on its fine-mesh Arôme model, the French forecasting body for the Antilles-Guyana forecasts for the moment the passage of a rather well-defined center (therefore possibly a depression) over the south of Guadeloupe with gusts. around 35 kts. This wind is expected to pass to the western sector of the same force on Marie-Galante and NW on Les Saintes. Be careful if you are at anchor in these areas. On Martinique a shift in the wind to the West is also expected but with less strong winds. For Les Îles du Nord, it's wind from sector E to SE with good gusts. On the other hand, rain and thunderstorms should affect the whole area, still according to Météo France.
Forecast models
In terms of the trajectory, a consensus exists for a WNW trip for the next few days with a passage between Martinique and Guadeloupe. But with the current disorganization the area affected by rain, thunderstorms and gusts is expected to be much larger.
Regarding the intensity, there is no real consensus and only a few isolated models predict a strengthening in storm for the next 24 hours (which concern the West Indies). During this period most remain on winds below 35 kts. It is for the future that the divergences widen with a large variability in the forecasts, which range from dissipation to the formation of a hurricane.
Conclusion
THEinvest 94L is now in the immediate vicinity of the West Indies in conditions which are becoming more favorable to its strengthening. Even the fairly dense pocket of dust and dry air to its north yesterday has been gradually moistened and no longer makes it possible to block any reinforcement.
For the West Indies, the risk of a significant reinforcement in a big storm or more is almost nil. A classification in depression before or during the passage on the arc is however possible. The risk is mainly related to rain and thunderstorms. The gusts could reach 35 kts (65 km / h) on Guadeloupe and in the north. The risk of a shift of the wind to the West on Guadeloupe (in particular the archipelago) Dominica and Martinique is also important. If you are anchored to the west of these areas, be careful and anticipate this switch.
We must therefore remain cautious and attentive tonight (the curfew will help) but not enough to panic. I will give continuous information on its evolution all day on my twitter account .
Image credit: Tropical tidbits nhc et UW-CIMSS
