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At the start of the week, for the weekly update, I said that the next few days should be calm in the West Indian region. This is the case and it will continue to be until WE. But we are in the active period of a very active season and the Atlantic reminds us today with 2 waves monitored by the nhc and another to leave Africa this WE which seems very readable for the global models.
You shouldn't expect too much respite after the Laura episode. It is the end of August and this is statistically the moment when the hurricane season is really accelerating. That 2 waves are monitored in the Atlantic is not surprising and it could continue like this for the next few weeks.
I spoke last night of the most easterly waveThere isn't much more to say about it tonight. The nhc corrected its graph to indicate a current position which avoids misunderstandings and slipped the envisaged reinforcement zone further north. The risk is still limited to 20% at 5 days and it is consistent with the models which do not develop it as a cyclone and make the disturbance pass north of the arc.
That over the mid-Atlantic has already been followed by the nhc the last WE while she was in the south of Cape Verde. But at the start of the week, unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic led the nhc not to follow her anymore. This is a fairly rare situation, but the heavy work for the forecasters on Laura may explain why they did not want to spread too thinly. The conditions are still unfavorable for it but could improve before the West Indies, in particular the shear. However, no major global model really develops it. But at 4 days with fairly hot water, you have to be wary, we have seen others strengthen out of the forecast under these conditions. There is a 10% cyclonic risk at 48 hours and 30% at 5 days.
For the moment these 2 waves do not yet create a real danger for the West Indies and are not even in Invest. The closest one could on the other hand strengthen after the arc and worry the Greater Antilles and it must be watched anyway.
You know that I am not a fan of long-term forecasts, that is, beyond 120 hours. However, I am going to make an exception today with an impressive disturbance over Africa which should be found on the Atlantic in the coming days. Normally I do not raise this kind of situation (which are not rare) because these very active disturbances often have difficulty adapting to their passage at sea. But here, a majority of global models, including the 2 major (theECMWF extension, very efficient on Laura and the GFS) develop a cyclone over the Atlantic next week from this disturbance. Since trends are very important to me, this consensus calls out to me. So let's be clear, we're talking about something in the mid-Atlantic and by no means any threat at the moment, it's way too early. But it's rare enough for this to happen: both a visually impressive disturbance and confirmation of reinforcement by the models. I wondered if I should talk about it… but since I know that many will not ask the question and will do it in an alarmist manner, I thought it was necessary.
So much for tonight's midpoint. The next few days are likely to be hectic on social media, especially with this disruption in Africa. We will have to remain calm but attentive and be content to follow the official forecasts if things degenerate a bit. I am well aware that it is not always easy, but it is the best thing to do!
Image credits; Tropical tidbits, NHC / Noaa, UW-CIMSS
