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Tropical Depression 13 continues its route to the north of the West Indian Arc. This afternoon she began to be in contact with the shear to its north, which had the effect of disorganizing it by decoupling its deep convection from its circulation. It could be temporary and it doesn't really change the forecast at the moment.
Its position is now estimated at 16.6N by 53.4W, its pressure at 1008 hPa and its intensity still at 30 kts. His trip is passed back to the WNW.
Visually, depression 13 is much less dashing than 24 hours ago. Its interaction with the shear shifted its convection and weakened it. It even seems on some images that its circulation has almost left the convective unit by the NW.
A Hurricane Hunter is on a mission in the system to assess the situation a little more precisely, but so far he has not really found a cyclonic organization. On the other hand, he found the wind between 40 and 50 kts The question now is whether it will find a closed circulation of the wind which would in fact make it a tropical storm. Otherwise the nhc will have headaches to choose the classification of a system with storm force wind but without the necessary characteristics to classify it as a storm!
Le shear has therefore weakened the depression quite a bit, but it should now move forward in a more favorable area conducive to its organization and strengthening. The nhc Besides, still maintains its prediction of classification in storm before tomorrow evening, therefore potentially at the longitude of the West Indies.
The models are still roughly in identical consensus but some have swapped in their vision of intensity. The HWRF who was very aggressive last night no longer offers what a very weak depression, while the GFS who predicted a big wave is now forecasting a storm.
These deviations in 24 hours show that even on very short deadlines, forecasting models still have great difficulty in reading this system.
As for the trajectory, it is a little further south that this morning is very very close to the North Islands.
We are 24 hours from the center of this system on the north of the arc or its immediate north. Still not insignificant changes may occur in its intensity, upward (most likely) or downward (least likely). The north of the arc must therefore prepare for its passage and the northern islands are also classified in yellow Watching for strong winds, rain and storms.
24h is both fast but also quite long in an area where the water is hot and other favorable conditions. There shouldn't be a hurricane in the area, but it is necessary to prepare a little, especially for the boats and to tidy up the terraces a little, at least. If not much should happen, which remains possible, precautions would have been taken anyway!
To finish a little word on the continuation with a potential reinforcement in hurricane before touching the South of Florida, I will speak about it again this WE.
To follow the direct quantified evolution of depression 13, it is HERE.
Image credits; Tropical tidbits, NHC / Noaa, UW-CIMSS
